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Chemical products have a long way to go

wallpapers News 2020-12-10

petrochemical industry still needs to see the "face" of crude oil. There are many expected variables for polyolefins. The "complexion" of crude oil will change as

. Looking back on 2014, the biggest feeling of the chemical industry market is that the "color" of crude oil will change. If it is said that the international oil market in 2013 is uneventful, then the performance of crude oil price in 2014 can be described as stormy.

in the first quarter, although the cold winter in the northern hemisphere boosted the focus of international oil prices, then the deepening of Ukraine crisis the outbreak of Iraq's civil war made crude oil rise further in the second quarter, the balance of supply dem in the international oil market was completely broken in the third quarter, the adjustment prelude of falling international oil prices began.

although the U.S. economy is still expected to continue its steady growth trend in 2015, Japan Europe are struggling, developing countries such as China Brazil are also facing major challenges, the global economy is likely to maintain a low growth rate. In this context, the growth prospect of global oil dem in 2015 is still not optimistic. Most futures companies expect that the daily dem of global oil will increase by 1 million barrels.

at the same time, the shale oil gas revolution will further boost the structural transformation of us oil supply dem. Many insiders predict that the daily growth rate of US crude oil in 2015 will reach 850000 barrels. Similarly, Canada continues to increase its oil ss production slightly by bringing in international investors. China Russia's crude oil production will also continue to maintain a steady momentum. Driven by economic interests the difficulty in adjusting internal contradictions, OPEC members are still unable to cut production.

in this context, the crude oil market in the first half of the year is still faced with market oversupply, the global economic outlook is bleak, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations other adverse factors, so the crude oil price will still be under full pressure. However, in the second half of the year, with the gradual dissipation of market bad news, investors' confidence gradually recovers, the international oil price is still expected to bottom out stabilize. "The oil price is still far from the bottom. Under the pessimistic situation, the bottom of the oil price (Brent) may be at $50 / barrel. The operating range of the whole year in 2015 will be between $50 $70 / barrel. It will bottom down in the first second quarters hit the bottom rebound in the third fourth quarters." CITIC futures said so. The cost side resistance of

is becoming more more obvious. As judged by the market, low oil prices may become the normal operation in 2015. The view that "crude oil price will determine the center of gravity of chemical products" was also reflected in the annual report of futures companies in 2015. In the view of many futures companies, the spot prices of most chemicals will also change from supply dem pricing to cost pricing in 2015.

according to the reporter of futures daily, in the second half of 2014, the new production capacity of domestic PP was mainly coal chemical plant, at the same time, PDH plant was put into operation. Propylene export of some units also depresses PP cost to a certain extent. As of mid December 2014, Brent crude oil has been as low as $60 / barrel. At the same time, the domestic PP cost estimated by naphtha is as low as 6100 yuan / ton, which is close to the cost area of 5500-6000 yuan / ton of integrated coal chemical industry.

"if the international crude oil further declines, the cost of oil to PP is expected to be lower than that of coal chemical industry. Therefore, if the domestic PP price drops further, the commissioning of coal chemical plant may be affected. In the fourth quarter of 2014, with the fall of PP price the firmness of methanol price, the gross profit of domestic coal chemical PP gradually declined. " According to the Research Report of Guangfa futures, the cost of purchasing methanol to PP in Northwest China was about 9100 yuan / ton in mid December 2014, the cost of purchasing methanol to PP had exceeded that of oil to PP PDH units. "As of mid December, the cost of domestic PDH PP fell to 6350 yuan / T, while the domestic oil-based PP cost estimated by propylene fell to 6500 yuan / T. With the deep drop of international crude oil, the cost advantage of coal chemical PP is gradually weakening, the impact of international crude oil on PP cost in 2015 will be further strengthened, especially the low-level operation of international crude oil. "

are similar to PP in that the same root PTA will also be squeezed by the cost side. "Cost driven determines the price focus." Galaxy futures analysts told reporters that from June 25 to December 17, 2014, this round of decline is more cost collapse. Among them, crude oil fell by 46.7%, naphtha by 49.7%, PX by 41% pta1505 contract by 29%. Generally speaking, the extent of decline in the upstream is greater than that in the downstream.

when PTA or PX continued to lose money, domestic PTA enterprises Asia's PX enterprises increased the power to reduce production. In 2014, domestic PTA enterprises carried out two major joint actions to limit production price, one was to limit production price in summer. This time, the production restriction price protection continued from May to the beginning of August, finally ended with the failure of production restriction. However, to a certain extent, the purpose of PX profit sharing was achieved, PTA enterprises suffered losses Remission. " According to the Research Report of Guangfa futures, PTA enterprises again limited production guaranteed prices at the end of the year, but suffered a sharp drop in international crude oil. This time, the production restriction price protection failed to prevent PTA prices from falling further.

as of mid December 2014, the price difference between PX naphtha has dropped to 320 USD / T, which has compressed PX production to the cost line. Since the correlation between naphtha price crude oil price reaches 90%, PX price trend mainly depends on naphtha price. Therefore, the future international crude oil trend has a great impact on PX price trend, which also plays a key role in PTA cost.

are affected by the domestic PTA production expansion for three consecutive years, PTA production has no profit, PTA dynamic profit is negative or hovering around the cost line in most periods, the future production profit is difficult to change. The dynamic change of PTA cost may become the main factor affecting PTA price trend. " Industry insiders said.

pattern of oversupply is difficult to improve. Looking forward to 2015, in addition to the cost factor, the interpretation of chemical market still can not get rid of the main melody of supply-dem contradiction.

it is understood that in the first quarter of 2015, two sets of large PX units are planned to be put into operation in Asia in the first quarter of 2015. One is located in India with a design capacity of 2 million tons, which is planned to be put into operation at the beginning of 2015; the other is Sinopec Ningbo, with a design capacity of 1.6 million tons, which is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter of 2015. Therefore, the pressure of PX market expansion in Asia in the first quarter was greater than that of supply500, 9000 line other integer gate pressure, 7500, 7000, 6500 line other integer gate support. According to Qian Tao, head of Wuxi Business Department of Huatai Great Wall Futures,

, the most important factor affecting PTA in 2015 is cost, crude oil determines the focus of chemicals. In terms of production capacity, PTA PX will be put into operation at the same time, so there will be no time difference. The change of the starting load in the industrial chain will affect the price difference. The possibility of a substantial increase in consumption is low, but it can also maintain a slight increase. "Overall, PTA in 2015 may be an oscillatory market, with an estimated range of 4000-6000 yuan."

as for methanol, due to the further increase of its supply pressure, although methanol to olefins is expected to drive the growth of dem, but under the background of relatively large external factors, the domestic methanol market trend in 2015 is difficult to be optimistic, the overall focus will be significantly lower than that in 2014. The Zheng alcohol index is expected to fluctuate between 1900 2800. Some futures companies suggest that investors should focus on methanol start-up, methanol port inventory, production of methanol to olefin project, profit price difference between methanol polypropylene. There may be phased long opportunities in the early stage of methanol to olefin project. "


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