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Coal to ethylene glycol market may be shuffled in the next five years

wallpapers News 2020-07-23
In the recent period of

, the continuous decline of crude oil price has brought great impact on the whole coal to ethylene glycol industry. Due to the impact of the favorable factors of oil price decline, the processing cost of traditional naphtha to glycol is constantly falling, the profitability of some ethylene glycol manufacturers has been improved to some extent. During the first half of December last year, the crude oil price in the international market hovered between us $60.94/barrel US $66.80/barrel, US crude oil futures also fell to the low point since 2009, even approaching us $60 per barrel.

The obvious drop of energy oil price in the upstream of

makes the traditional naphtha to ethylene glycol production enterprises seem to see great hope, also makes the profit space of traditional naphtha to glycol production enterprises reach 1000 yuan / ton ~ 1200 yuan / ton in the first ten days of December. Although methanol to ethylene glycol coal to ethylene glycol are still profitable, they have no profit advantage compared with naphtha to ethylene glycol. As is known to all,

, ethylene glycol from coal can not be fully used in the downstream polyester industry chain industry, because some large-scale state-owned polyester enterprises private or joint-venture enterprises purchase 10% - 20% of the total The coal to ethylene glycol naphtha to ethylene glycol are used together. Compared with the traditional olefin based ethylene glycol, the advantages of coal to ethylene glycol are only in cost. The continuous drop of international oil price the small rise of coal price have brought great impact on China's coal to ethylene glycol industry, the sales pressure of domestic coal to ethylene glycol production enterprises will also increase.

previously predicted that from 2013 to 2015, with the gradual maturity of coal to ethylene glycol technology, enterprises will be more inclined to this route. This production process is in line with China's resource characteristics of oil shortage, gas shortage rich coal resources, has obvious cost advantages compared with the oil route method. The processing cost per ton is about 500 yuan / ton ~ 1000 yuan / ton, has the advantages of short process flow, low energy consumption, high cost It has the advantages of low water consumption, low emission good profitability. However, it did not expect that the crude oil price fell to the lowest point in five years, which made coal to ethylene glycol production enterprises a little unprepared. According to the calculation of

, only when the oil price is at the level of 75 US dollars / barrel or above, China's coal to ethylene glycol still has a competitive advantage, but now the oil price has fallen by a large margin, it can be said that there is no advantage at all. The downstream PET / > pet production enterprises will no longer want to achieve the fundamental goal of "reducing cost increasing efficiency" by selecting coal to ethylene glycol raw materials.

at present, ethylene glycol produced in China mainly adopts oil route. The product cost is closely linked with international oil price, the market price will fluctuate with the change of crude oil price. The cost of upstream raw materials accounts for about 50% of the total cost of ethylene glycol. The ethylene glycol products in the Middle East use ethane propane in the associated gas of oil fields as raw materials, which are cheap even free to use. Therefore, the average CIF price of ethylene glycol is always 400 yuan / ton ~ 800 yuan / ton lower than that of China. The cost advantage of ethylene glycol processed produced in the Middle East is very obvious. In recent years, in China's ethylene glycol market, especially in the shortage of oil resources, high oil prices, high costs, the impact of cheap products in the Middle East, large water consumption high energy consumption, China's traditional petroleum route to produce ethylene glycol lacks competitiveness. In the past few years, many people have also been interested in the bio chemical process route of ethanol ethylene glycol using corn as raw material. There was once a heated discussion on this topic, with both support opposition voices. However, in the end, various restrictions made this process impossible. When the oil price remains high, it can be said that coal to ethylene glycol technology is an inevitable development trend.

from 2015 to 2020, if there are investors who want to carry out coal to ethylene glycol project in China, they must put the investment risk in the first place. Now, a very serious problem has been put in front of you. If China's coal to ethylene glycol project is put into operation again, then the effective production capacity is continuously exping rapidly, then the scene of fierce competition among coal to ethylene glycol production enterprises will start ahead of time, even some projects will encounter "cold winter" market, or even forced production reduction or even be encountered The situation of production suspension.

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