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Comment on the "five biggest" of coal chemical industry bear market in 2014

wallpapers News 2020-08-09
The coal chemical industry market in December of

is full of sorrow, it is not too much to call it a bear market. Looking back on the trend of 2014, under the influence of many factors, such as the weak global economic recovery, the continuous cooling of the domestic real estate market, the aggravation of environmental protection pressure, the launch of new projects, the increase of supply pressure, the coal chemical industry market has been quite difficult. For the coming year of 2015, there will still be many difficulties. When it comes to whether the expectations are parallel, we can only hope for the next year after the long-awaited "Little Dragon Girl" is finally destroyed by Yu Ma into a "little cage bag". Under the bear market of

, the coal chemical industry also seems to have staged a martial arts storm. The top performance of the five masters makes the audience feel a mixture of five flavors.

the most lost methanol

spicy comments: originally expected appearance explosion table, the result is medicine! Medicine! Medicine!

in recent years, China's methanol industry as a whole has a serious overcapacity. In 2014, China's methanol production capacity exceeded 60 million tons. However, affected by the overall economic situation, the traditional downstream dem is declining. Oversupply is still the biggest problem in methanol market in 2014. In this context, methanol has been falling all the way this year. According to the data monitored by "my iron steel network", as of December 21, the comprehensive trading price of methanol was 1798 yuan / ton, down 1053 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the year, 41.72% lower than that at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the year, methanol spot was 3000 yuan / ton in Northwest China, 3300 yuan / ton in East China, 3500 yuan / ton in South China 3400 yuan / ton in futures; now, 1650 yuan / ton in Northwest China 1750 yuan / ton in East China.

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, ,

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figure 1 methanol composite trading price index (unit: yuan / ton)

market originally expected methanol to olefins to play a greater support, especially in December, many people expected methanol to set off a wave like last year. In December, the newly launched methanol to olefin enterprises completely consumed the reduction of formaldehyde dimethyl ether dem in the traditional off-season, but the market did not appear. It is reported that in December 2013, methanol prices soared to more than 4000, then fell sharply in the middle of the year. By the end of the month, the prices in East South China were still above 3500.

are seriously damaged due to the sharp drop of crude oil. When the crude oil price is 100 US dollars / barrel, coal to olefins are more than 1000 yuan cheaper than naphtha to olefins per ton. The profit loss points of olefins methanol are about 65-70 dollars / barrel, the oil price has dropped to below 60 dollars / barrel. The profit of olefin projects is worrying, the market mentality of methanol olefins is negative. Table 1 shows the comparison of methanol to olefins naphtha cracking costs. Table 1 cost comparison of methanol to olefin oil brain cracking cost comparison (unit: dollar / barrel, yuan / ton)

crude oil price

40

50

40

"50"

60

"60"

70

80

"80"

90

90

"100" 100

"110"

40

40

50 "50"

"50" 50

60 "60"

"60" 60

70 cost

3900

4700

4700

5600

6300

7100

8000

8800

9600

10500

10500

3900

4700

4700

5600

5600

5600

""

"7100"

"7100"

""

""

"2367"

""

"2667"

""

"2933"

"

3200

,

3500

,

,

note: the competitive price of methanol is calculated according to the formula 1:3 per ton consumption of methanol to olefins.

the most "Crazy" crude benzene

spicy comments: once hit the "chicken blood" rise, now is a cliff like decline. People laugh that I am too crazy, I laugh that people can't see through. The year of

crude benzene can be regarded as a year of ups downs. According to the monitoring data of "my iron steel network", the comprehensive trading price of crude benzene in July was 7290 yuan / ton, the highest value in the year. As of December 22, the price was 2272 yuan / ton, a sharp drop of 68.89% year-on-year, a decrease of 5018 yuan / ton at the higher point. However, on December 23, the auction price of Datuhe in Shanxi Province was at a high level of 2860 yuan / ton, up 44% compared with last week's auction price. Subsequently, the bidding price of Jiujiang in Qian'an was 3092 yuan / ton, the crude benzene in the main production area returned to the high level of more than 3000 yuan / ton. Without the participation of the downstream, the rising trend is suspected of speculation.

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Figure 2 crude benzol comprehensive trading price index price trend in Shong Province

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crude benzol downstream units are still exping greatly this year, there is a large supply gap. Under the impact of crude oil slump, the price of pure benzene in foreign countries continued to fall, the whole domestic aromatic industry chain was in a slump. The main products such as pure benzene, toluene, xylene styrene all reached the lowest level since 2009 (see Table 2), the overall trading atmosphere was almost stagnant. In the future, the main reason for the decline of crude benzol Market is the international crude oil market. Traders may not be able to stir up a wave.

Table 2 2008 2014 aromatics main products low point

unit: yuan / ton

2008 lowest point

2008 lowest point

2014 low low low

crude benzene (East China)

1750

2300

petroleum benzene (East China)

2800

2008 lowest point "2008"

""

"2008 lowest"

""

"2014 low"

"crude benzene (East China)"

""

""

"" it's a good idea

hydrogenated benzene (Shong)

,

2800

,

4000

,

styrene (East China)

,

4400

,

6600

,

,

the most helpless high-temperature coal tar

spicy comments: the lower reaches of the

,

2800

,

4000

,

styrene (East China)

,

4400

,

,

the most helpless high temperature coal tar

,

spicy comments: the lower.

are affected by the "half dead" of downstream dem, high-temperature coal tar has not performed well this year. However, since October, the high-temperature coal tar has been falling all the way, with the decline of 500 yuan / ton in the mainstream areas. At present, the price of high-temperature coal tar in Shong Province is only 1700 yuan / ton. As of December 23, the comprehensive trading price of high-temperature coal tar was 1847 yuan / ton,Compared with the beginning of the year, the price dropped by 776 yuan / ton.

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figure 3 high temperature coal tar comprehensive trading price index

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economic environment is weak, coal chemical market is also weak. Under the weak market environment, the development of coal tar deep processing market is slow. The main product of coal tar pitch has been facing the problem of overcapacity, there are constantly new devices put into operation, which makes the sales of manufacturers weak the price is low. In addition, naphthalene, the main profit-making industry in the past years, has been constantly falling, the profit space of deep processing has been squeezed. The start-up of the plant can only fall again again, the carbon black market It is also the limited release of dem. Under the pressure of fatigue loss, deep processing has concentrated on reducing the price of raw materials to shift the pressure. However, the overall supply of high-temperature coal tar is still in short supply. At present, the inventory of coking plant is low, there is still a line of support for the price of high-temperature coal tar. In the later stage, whether the coal tar continues to fall or rebound, we still need to continue to observe.

Table 3 summary of prices of high temperature coal tar downstream poles in 2014

unit: yuan / ton

"industrial naphthalene"

""

"anthracene oil"

""

"coal pitch"

""

"N220 carbon black"

""

"the highest point of"

""

"time"

" Kdspe

price price

price

price

price

price

price

2950

7400

3400

3400

2350

6000

6000

time

time

price price

2950

7400

3400

2350

6000

6000

SPE ""

"late December"

""

"late December"

"

December late December

December late December

December late December

price

2000

2000

3000

2200

2000

2000

4600

""

""

December late December

December December

December

December

I'm sorry Since this year,

has been in a weak situation. As of December 23, the comprehensive trading price of ammonium sulfate was 429 yuan / ton, down 11% year-on-year, the price was 33 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the year.

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Figure 4 the weakness of ammonium sulfate composite trading price index

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mainly comes from the dem side. Since 2014, the macro environment is weak, the overall support of export, rare earth domestic fertilizer dem is not good, which is unfavorable to the ammonium sulfate Market.

are the most wayward industrial naphthalene. Comments on

: as soon as they enter the bear Road, they are like the sea. From then on, the "Three Outlooks" are passers-by. The proportion of

in the output of deep-processing enterprises is less than one tenth. This year, industrial naphthalene is also very concerned. Industrial naphthalene has fallen nearly 50% since July, the strongest snowstorm ever. On September 23, the price "broke through 6" the price dropped to 5968 yuan / ton; on October 13, the price "broke 5" again dropped to 4989 yuan / ton; on December 3, it went down further, "breaking 4" to 3959 yuan / ton. As of December 23, the comprehensive trading price of industrial naphthalene was 3026 yuan / ton, down 61.02% year-on-year, 4219 yuan / ton compared with the price at the beginning of the year.

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figure 5 the composite price index of industrial naphthalene

on the one h, the continuous downturn in the real estate market has made the superplasticizer market, which has always been the dominant dem for industrial naphthalene, suffered heavy losses this year; on the other h, the collapse of crude oil caused the external market of pure benzene to plummet Sinopec's pure benzene decreased several times, which also affected the relevant downstream markets. It is worth mentioning that from 2013 to 2014, the consumption proportion of naphthalene based phthalic anhydride market in the downstream of industrial naphthalene was increasing, the market share of naphthalene superplasticizer was decreasing. At the same time, the naphthalene based phthalic anhydride plant was still exping adding with its considerable profit advantage. With the development of polycarboxylic acid water reducing agent aliphatic water reducing agent, the share of naphthalene water reducing agent was continuously reduced.

entered December. Affected by the further load reduction of water reducing agent manufacturers, the raw material industrial naphthalene shipment is increasingly hindered. Moreover, most water reducing agent manufacturers in the north have plans to stop work have a holiday ahead of time. It is expected that the dem side will further shrink in the future. The weather turns cold, the downstream enters the off-season, the reception of goods is weak. The support of NEFA phthalic anhydride is limited, the market of refined naphthalene 2-naphthol is difficult to change. It is estimated that industrial naphthalene will not escape the bear market, it is still unknown what will hit the bottom.

on the future

spicy comments: ask what is the bottom of the world, straight to people's dismay! At present, the five major varieties of

are in the declining range. However, for methanol, tar, crude benzene industrial naphthalene, we can not help asking, is it the bottom? If crude oil falls to $40 / T, several major varieties of coal chemical industry may still suffer heavy losses. For next year's trend "


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