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Crude oil is waiting for a new balance, and chemicals are falling sharply

wallpapers News 2020-08-15

in the second half of 2014, the most important event in the global commodity market is the collapse of international crude oil prices. At present, WTI crude oil has fallen below $60 / barrel, while Brent crude oil is only one step away from $60 / barrel, with cumulative declines of 44% 45% respectively. Crude oil spilled a thous li, directly triggered the price of domestic chemicals including PTA, plastics plummeted. It's no wonder that the crude oil prices of

are falling due to the following reasons: first, the contradiction between increased supply reduced dem; second, the rise of the US dollar index has a negative effect on US dollar denominated crude oil; third, conspiracy theorists believe that the United States Saudi Arabia jointly suppress oil prices to challenge Russia (or Saudi Arabia's crackdown on oil prices is aimed at the US shale oil industry). If

want crude oil to stabilize recover, the above three reasons need to be partially improved. The rise of the US dollar index is one of the drivers of the drop in oil prices. In the second half of 2014, various economic data showed that the US economy continued to improve, the US Federal Reserve ended QE, the US interest rate rise was expected to rise. At the same time, the European economic slowdown, the European Central Bank brewing "European version of QE" will depress the euro, thus boosting the dollar. As a result, the dollar index is expected to maintain an upward trend. "Spkds" "spkds" are closely linked with global politics. Whether it is "the United States is fighting Iraq because of oil" or "the United States is suppressing oil prices because of Russia", all of which show the importance of crude oil in geopolitics. The contradiction between the United States Russia comes from Ukraine. Judging from the current situation, there is no sign of easing the crisis in Ukraine, the shale oil industry in the United States has not experienced actual production reduction. From the perspective of "conspiracy theory", there is no factor to support the sharp rise of oil price.

, whether they are "conspiracy" or "conspiracy", one thing is real, that is, the substantial increase of shale oil production in the United States the recovery of production capacity in Libya Iraq have brought a lot of new supply to the market. The author believes that it is the increase in supply that leads to the imbalance between supply dem of crude oil, which leads to the sharp drop of crude oil in the second half of the year. In November 2014, the average daily crude oil production of the United States was 9.06 million barrels, an increase of 1.08 million barrels over last year, the highest level since July 1986. The U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) estimates that the U.S. will produce 9.5 million barrels of crude oil a day next year (equivalent to Saudi Arabia's production). The global crude oil market is changing. With the support of new shale oil exploitation technologies, the US crude oil production is impacting the original market structure.

next, there may be two trends in oil prices. One is that when the oil price reaches a certain low level, some high-cost production capacity (not necessarily shale oil) will be shut down to form a new balance between supply dem; the other is that OPEC or OPEC other major oil producing countries (Russia the United States) jointly reduce production to support oil prices to stabilize at a certain price. Either way, the original pattern of supply dem has been broken. Even if a new balance is established, the focus of oil prices will remain low for a long time without the outbreak of a major geopolitical crisis. In 2015, the core range of Brent oil price may be in the range of $60-80 / barrel (not excluding the periodic drop below $60 / barrel). Under the background that crude oil will run at a low level for a long time its own capacity is generally surplus, domestic chemicals in 2015 are still not optimistic.


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