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Export policy boosts ammonium phosphate cautious and optimistic

wallpapers News 2020-10-22

2015 tariff implementation plan has significantly relaxed the export of urea ammonium phosphate, cancelled the window policy in the off peak season. Urea is charged at 80 yuan / ton, ammonium phosphate at 100 yuan / ton, nitrogen phosphorus fertilizer at 5% ad valorem. The division of dry season peak season was cancelled, which provided good export competition conditions for ammonium phosphate.

simple analysis of the advantages of the new tariff:

first of all, the cancellation of the export season can increase the export opportunities the time to gather in the port, which may reduce the inventory pressure of enterprises temporarily ease the problem of overcapacity. By the end of October, the total export volume of ammonium phosphate has reached 5.1691 million tons. According to the current growth rate, the total export volume of this year is likely to exceed 6 million tons, which greatly boosts the confidence of ammonium phosphate enterprises to export next year.

secondly, the cancellation of the low peak export season can enable enterprises to take a more active position in negotiating prices with foreign investors. Looking back on May 15, this year, when the export window was just opened, foreign businessmen deliberately lowered the price. The average FOB price of DAP in the previous month was only 420 US dollars / ton. However, looking at the historical records, the average FOB price of DAP in China was about 460 US dollars in the two peak seasons. In this way, we can easily find that although the new tariff costs 50 yuan / ton more than the old off-season tariff, due to the increase of FOB price, the manufacturer may gain 150 yuan / ton more revenue.

still need attention in the future market:

first of all, the overcapacity of diammonium has reached 100%, the actual output often has more or less surplus. This year, under the good export situation, the average operating rate of most large factories is only slightly higher than 60%. Now most ammonium phosphate enterprises are optimistic about the export market under the new tariff, so the operating rate will certainly increase. If the international market is not good, then On the contrary, domestic inventory pressure will increase, the price war will also be upgraded. Second,

are the second. Raw material sulfur nibbles at the profit of ammonium phosphate. According to the feedback from the downstream market, the current ammonium phosphate enterprise has a large amount of sulfur reserves can continue to consume for a long time until March next year, while the small amount can only be maintained around the middle of January. China's sulfur mainly depends on imports. If the export market of ammonium phosphate is good the quantity is large, the price of sulfur will take the opportunity to go up erode the profits of enterprises. However, once the price trend of ammonium phosphate is reversed in the later stage, the manufacturers who continue to purchase sulfur at high prices will be in bad luck. Therefore, under the new tariff, there is a great possibility that the gross profit of the manufacturer will increase, but the net profit may not increase.

in general, the new tariff is more favorable than bad for the ammonium phosphate Market, but the market is not unchangeable. Export is a double-edged sword. Ammonium phosphate enterprises should maintain a cautious optimistic attitude. From a long-term point of view, the author suggests that manufacturers should put the increase of unit income in the first place, the amount of income in the second place.

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